CARBON EMISSIONS IMPACT & GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

By Oghenemagan Kereokiye

     Abimbola Shode

     Nneka Iyabode Eze

     Kingsley Onuoha

     Yetunde Esan

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE IMPACT OF CARBON EMISSIONS

In recent times global climate change has become a major issue for most countries as its effect is felt in our world today, ranging from increased rainfall and increased drought in some areas, to increasing temperatures, melting glaciers and rising sea levels in many areas of the world as stated by the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report of 2007[1].

These global changes in climate conditions have led to studies on why our world is experiencing these changes and what can be done to mitigate these effects on our climate. Studies by scientists and the IPCC reveal that the changes in the climatic conditions which we are experiencing are caused by an increase in the level of Green House Gases (GHG) being expelled into the atmosphere.

Green House Gases do occur naturally in the atmosphere {such as Water Vapor, Carbon Dioxide (CO₂), and Methane} not just as a result of the activities of living organisms but the activities of human beings, particularly as a result of industrialization and the need for economic growth- which has created an anthropogenic source of additional Green House Gases that has gone beyond the capacity that our environment can withstand.

Of all the green house gases mentioned above, the most potent is methane as it has the most ability to retain heat. But the most problematic GHG at the moment is carbon dioxide because it is believed that the activities of human beings have led to an increased amount of CO₂ in the environment, thus making its effect far more reaching than that of methane.

So for most countries and organizations, the green of house gas of interest is carbon dioxide. Carbon dioxide emissions are particularly emitted from the burning of fossil fuels such as petrol or gasoline in our car engines, coal in power plants used for generating electricity, etc. The threat that carbon emissions pose to our climate has led to a general consensus that there is need to reduce the amount of carbon that we are generating and as such the amount of carbon emissions that make it into the atmosphere.

DEVELOPING THE MODEL

Five of us have teamed up to design a model with which we will be examining the factors that can influence the level of carbon emissions which exist in a country’s atmosphere. Does this vary from one country to another? Are there conditions that must be in place for your carbon emissions to rise or fall? These questions require that we have an understanding of the variables or quantities that drive the level of carbon for a country. From Literature, we have identified four factors that could drive carbon emissions, although this is not an exhaustive list, it is what our model will be based on for the purpose of this investigation.

Firstly, it was discovered that the amount of carbon emissions in a country is the influenced by the amount of energy consumed. In order to allow for economic growth, most countries seek to become industrialized and for this to happen they need to consume energy. Since the most easily accessible source of energy is fossil fuels, most countries tend to consume large amounts of fossil fuels and as we know, burning fossil fuel releases CO₂ as a result of incomplete combustion of carbon. This suggests that the larger the amount of energy consumed, the greater the amount of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere.

This is shown in figure 1 below;

Figure 1: Total primary energy supply  (TPES)and CO₂ emissions trend. (Source: www.esds.ac.uk)

 From the figure above, it is clear that there is a positive correlation between the amount of energy consumed and the carbon emissions.

Looking at the problem from a second dimension we can examine the relationship between energy intensity and carbon intensity of the economy that is, the relationship between the energy required or consumed per unit of economic output (or energy intensity) and the amount of carbon produced per unit of economic output as well (i.e. the carbon intensity of the country).

The trend of carbon intensity and energy intensity is shown in figure 2 below;

Figure 2: Energy intensity and carbon intensity trend. (Source: www.esds.ac.uk)

Just like the chart in figure one; this chart also suggests that there is a positive correlation between the energy intensity and carbon intensity.

Thirdly, we can establish the impact of growth in use of renewable energy on carbon emissions. The growth of renewable energy in recent times can be attributed to most developed countries having to come to terms with the fact that their pattern of energy consumption is not sustainable and harming the environment because of carbon emissions. So, renewable energy is seen as a means of resolving the global climate change issue by adopting energy sources that have no carbon emissions and which are not harmful to the environment.

The trends of carbon intensity and renewable energy are shown below;

 Figure 3: Renewable energy and carbon intensity trend. (Source: www.eds.ac.uk)

The chart shows that as the amount of energy renewable energy rises, the carbon intensity falls. From this we can say that there is a negative relationship between the amount of renewable energy and carbon intensity. Although, the relationship between growth in renewables and carbon emissions should usually be an inverse relationship, this is not always the case as some times energy input into a renewable energy system may outweigh its outputs having an overall negative impact on the economy.

Another factor, the fourth, that we believe will affect the level carbon emissions in country will be the policies that the country will adopt in order to fight emissions.

These policies can come as a result of being part of an organization such as the European Union (EU) or the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), or signing an agreement into law in a country- such as the Kyoto protocol.

We believe that being members of these organizations will affect the level of carbon emissions in a country as most members of these organizations are made to adopt policies aimed at reducing carbon emission.

NUTSHELL:

This is the first of a five-part series exploring the relationship between carbon emissions and global climate change. A very interesting feature of this series is that it is the first combined effort - by 5 Oil of Famers - to be featured on 'The Mix: Oil and Water!'. In this instalment, Yetunde outlines four factors which she believes will affect the level of carbon emissions in a country's atmosphere/ climate. This will lay the foundation upon which a couple of models will be built by the team to further test for and establish their case in the search for answers as to the causal dynamics in this relationship. This is prelude to an interesting quantitative analysis worth reading over and over again. To view Yetunde's professional profile and for more information on this article please click here:-->