FRANCE: Decarbonising the Transport Sector

By Amaka Araraume

Transport sector energy consumption accounts for about 28% of total final energy consumption in France and is the leading source of CO2 emissions from energy use. The purpose of this analysis is twofold. The first purpose is to analyze the potential factors influencing the changes in transport sector CO2 emissions in France over a period of 27 years (1980-2007) by decomposing the emissions growth into components associated with changes in fuel mix (FM), modal mix (MM), emission coefficient (EC), transportation energy intensity (EI) and economic growth. The second purpose is to forecast the transport energy demand and CO2 emissions for the period of 2006-2030.

The decomposition analysis is carried out using the Log Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) technique. The analysis is done in three phases to see how CO2 emissions vary between these three sub-intervals and tender critical analysis for such variations. In the first subinterval of 1980-1990, economic activity effect and fuel mix effect were found to be the two major influencing factors on emissions growth. In the second subinterval of 1990-2000, economic growth and changes in modal mix were found to be the principal factors driving transport sector CO2 emissions growth. Finally, for the period 2000-2007 there is a reduction in transport sector CO2 emissions where modal mix accounted for most of the decrease in emissions while fuel mix was the major driving force behind the increase in emissions. This series also makes some policy recommendations and reviews existing government policies to reduce CO2 emissions growth, such as fiscal instruments, regulatory instruments to improve fuel economy and policies to encourage switching to cleaner fuels and less emission intensive modes of transportation. 

Future transport energy demand and CO2 emission is projected using LEAP. The results show that for BASE scenario, the transport energy consumption is likely to grow at 4.22% during the period 2006-2030. This will increase CO2 emissions at an equivalent rate. The effects of various policy options aimed at reducing energy consumption and emissions are analysed using a scenario approach. Efficiency improvements offer the most reduction potential; reducing energy consumption and CO2 emissions by 22%, on the other hand the introduction of alternative fuels offers the least reduction potential; 2% reduction in energy consumption and CO2 emissions.

Global concerns about carbon emissions have heightened in recent years as a deeper understanding, and knowledge becomes available about the impact of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions on the global biophysical environment. In particular, it is widely acknowledged that GHGs erode the protective ozone layer to cause increased warming of the planet and with the attendant effects on global climate. Climate change has become the euphemistic term used to describe the unpredictable changes to global climate for which the consequences are evident in the incessant yet unpredictable climate extremes of flood, desertification, hurricanes, cyclones, which have caused huge destruction to lives and property. While the link between climate change and these physical manifestations is hotly debated, there is overwhelming evidence linking global environmental degradation to human activities. This relationship is exemplified by the insatiable and overwhelming demands made on global natural resources in pursuit of economic growth and development, and this is rapidly undermining the carrying capacity of the global biophysical environment. 

The realisation of the enormous threats posed by climate change to the global economic and socio-political order compelled governments, pressure groups, and multilaterals as well as unilateral organisations into taking the action that culminated in the Kyoto Protocol that was initially adopted on 11 December 1997 in Kyoto, Japan and entered into force on 16 February 20051. Kyoto, established the basis upon which the prime cause of climate change; global warming- is combated; this is through legally binding measures aimed at reducing GHG emissions within a specific time frame. 

Nevertheless, the Kyoto protocol generated huge political debates within and between nations, which explains why it was ratified by some countries without delays and others ratifying much later while countries such as the USA never ratified the protocol2 - this reluctance is derived from the fear exercised by some countries of committing to GHG emission reductions that could undermine their economic growth prospects3. France, which is the focus of this study signed the Kyoto protocol in April 1998 and ratified in May 20024. Even at this, France departed from the position of the rest of the EU countries that agreed a collective reduction of greenhouse gases by 8 percent of the 1990 levels by 2012. Instead, France agreed to keep its emissions at the 1990 level5. Fossil fuel is one of the natural and non-renewable resources exploited for the pursuit of economic growth and development but the associated wastes, which include carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, have a major impact on global climate. Fossil fuels have many end uses, and the degree of CO2 emissions depends on fossil fuel types6. The transport sector is one of the most fossil fuel intensive in most economies albeit because of the facilitating role the transport sector plays in economic development, which explains the disproportionate amount of CO2 emissions it accounts. 

A brief look at France’s fuel sources for electricity generation reveals the predominance of nuclear (75.8%) over coal (6.2%), oil (2%), gas (1.4%), hydro (13.9%), wind and photovoltaic (0.1%) and biomass (0.6%)7. This has major implications for CO2 emissions, which explains the low CO2 emissions by France relative to other European countries. For example, France’s contribution to CO2 emissions per capita in 2006 was 5.97 tons, which is about half the OECD average of 10.93 tons8. In addition to this, France accounts for 2.93% of the OECD total CO2 emissions and 1.35% of total global CO2 emissions.9 

Given the predominance of nuclear power in electricity generation on the one hand and on the other, the negligible contribution of fossil fuel to electricity generation- this indicates that the transport sector may explain most of France’s CO2 emission where fossil fuel combustion mostly occurs.10 Nonetheless, France has managed to decrease its emissions from 461 million tons in 1980 to 369 million tons in 2007.11 However, the transport sector was an exception because the sector is one area where the proportion of emissions increased from 88 million tons in 1980 to 131 million tons in 2007 representing an average annual growth rate (AAGR) of 1.5 %. 

Therefore, the ramifications of the transport sector CO2 emissions with respect to climate-change mitigation have become the focus of intense debates by energy experts and policy makers alike. In the case of France, any effort to address climate change would be incomplete without adequate attention to the transport sector. In this regard, there are two motivations for this effort. Firstly, as consumption is likely to increase in line with economic and population growth, it is very necessary for France’s energy and environmental policy makers to understand the driving forces governing energy consumption; hence CO2 emissions in the transport sector. This will aid in formulating effective polices and strategies to reduce CO2 emissions from the transport sector, as part of an overall strategy for promoting sustainable energy sources and use. Secondly, it is important to forecast growth of transport energy demand as long-term forecasts are essential for energy planning, with the primary purpose being to12: 

i. help policy makers develop appropriate pricing and taxation systems 

ii. help decide future investments and decisions on oil reserves to improve energy security 

iii. aid in addressing emission and pollution issues in advance, and 

iv. allow for planning of future energy needs, as well as to identify national infrastructure and research and development requirements. 

Moreover, it is critical for decision makers to recognize the nature of fuel demand so that they can implement corresponding policies and regulations to ensure sustainable development. 

Based on the foregoing, this study has the following two objectives: 

a) To determine the factors that influence transport CO2 emissions in France. 

Utilising the decomposition analysis attempts have been made to determine the relative contributions of potential factors (Mairet and Decellas, 2009 and Timilsina and Shrestha, 2009), which include: 

i. changes in fuel mix; 

ii. Modal shift; 

iii. Economic growth; as well as changes in iv. Emission coefficient; and 

v. Transportation energy intensity. 

The study period is from 1980 to 2007, which is a total of 27 years. In order to capture how these factors have changed over the years, the period of the study was split into three different sub-periods: 1980–1990, 1990–2000, and 2000–2007. It is expected that this will allow any significant policy changes in the economy to be captured. In this regard, the decomposition analysis of the transport sector CO2 emissions will enable us observe the effects of different macroeconomic policies on carbon dioxide emissions that might have been implemented in the transport sector for the duration of the study. 

b) Using the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) System, the second objective of this paper is to forecast the energy demand and CO2 emissions for both passenger and freight transport; and to analyze the potential of scenarios for saving energy demand and reducing CO2 emissions. The current energy situation is created in the starting year-2006 and the baseline scenario is developed assuming a continuation of recent trends. The planning period of the study is 2006-2030. The scenarios that were considered in order to study the impact of different transport policy initiatives that would reduce the total energy demand in the transport sector of France and also reduce emissions are: 

i. Emphasis on energy efficiency improvements (EFFICIENCY); 

ii. Promoting public transportation (PUBLIC); 

iii. Introduction of alternative transport fuels (ALTFUEL); 

iv. Desired modal split (MODESPLIT) and 

v. Electrification of the rail system (ELECTRAIL) 

Results of the analyses are presented in terms of energy use and emissions in transportation and potential of energy savings in each scenario.

NUTSHELL:

For the next 2 months we will follow Amaka -over about 10 articles- as she delivers a compelling case for Decarbonizing the Transport Sector in France. Her subsequent article will commence with an examination of previous work on decomposition analysis and energy forecasting methods which are critically reviewed and analysed in order to set the tone for the application of required investigative techniques. According to Amaka, the essence of doing so is to avoid duplicating previous efforts and to identify gaps in the literature that her study may contribute to plugging. Her findings thereon will set the tone for the rest of the analysis of the Transport sector in France. Thorough work from Amaka. For more information on this article and to view Amaka's professional profile, click here -->

1 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) at http://unfccc.int/2860.php (last visited 17th September 2010). 

2UNFCC at http://unfccc.int/2860.php (last visited 17th September 2010). 

3 Kyoto Protocol will Cut Europe’s Economic Growth at http://www.iccfglobal.org/pdf/bloomberg110705.pdf (last visited 17th September 

2010). 

4 UNFCC at http://unfccc.int/2860.php (last visited 17th September 2010). 

5 Neither reduction required, nor increase allowed. 

6 UNFCC/CCNUCC – Tool to project CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel Combustion at http://cdm.unfccc.int/methodologies/PAmethodologies/tools/am-tool-03-v2.pdf (last visited 18th September 2010). 

7 IEA world Energy Balances 

8 IEA Energy Statistics at http://www.iea.org/stats/index.asp (last visited on 15 June 2010) 

9 IEA Energy Statistics – Energy Indicators at http://www.iea.org/stats/indicators.asp?COUNTRY_CODE=FR (last visited on 23 June 2010) 

10 This study considers only fossil-fuel-consumption-related CO2 emissions as the analysis is for the transport sector which emits CO2 through energy use. 

11 IEA World Energy Balances 

12 Zhang et al (2009)